Sinopse

What have the invention of the wheel, Pompei, the Wall Streets Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in commom? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? What can Catherine the Great´s lovers tell us about probability? Why are almost all forecasters con-artists? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they´re nearly impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the "experts", The Black Swan shows us how to stop trying to predict everything and take advantage of uncertainty.

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